What happened in the New Jersey gubernatorial race will have broad ramifications across the country and into 2022.
By Jennifer Lukawski, BGR Principal
November 3, 2021
While most of the attention today is on Glenn Youngkin’s come-from-behind victory over former Governor Terry McAuliffe in the Virginia gubernatorial campaign, a nationalized race by any measure, the real story may be in New Jersey. Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy (D-NJ) aimed to become the first Democrat since 1977 to be re-elected in the Garden State. In what has become a reliably blue state, the race should have been a shoo-in for him. His Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, was a relative unknown. What’s more, Governor Murphy had a significant war chest, was running in a state that President Biden won by 16 points, and there are one million more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state. Governor Murphy has been successful in delivering on many of the progressive promises he made in his 2017 campaign, such as a minimum wage hike, free community college tuition, and new gun control laws. He was also commanding an 11-point lead in the polls as late as last week. Yet here we are, the day after, and the race is still too close to call. Pundits and political observers, not to mention the Murphy campaign, are in disbelief that this race is a nail-biter. So, what happened?
For starters, Democrats did not show up. In 2020, 2.6 million people voted for President Biden in New Jersey. Last night, only 1.2 million people stepped up to vote for Governor Murphy. A drop off of 1.4 million voters is stunning, even for an off-year election. While votes are still being counted in the Democratic strongholds of Essex and Hudson counties, Democrats up and down the ballot fell far short of expectations in the blue-collar areas of South Jersey. In fact, NJ State Senate President Stephen Sweeney, an 11-year incumbent and the second-most powerful elected state official behind Murphy, is currently trailing a Republican truck driver who spent just $153 on his campaign. If defeated, Sweeny would join a list of stunning upsets in legislative races across the state.
Republicans, on the other hand, bitterly frustrated by having some of the highest property taxes in the country and suffering through strict COVID-19 lockdowns, showed up in droves to vote for a candidate that most had likely never heard of or who knew little about. Ciattarelli, a businessman and former member of the NJ General Assembly, was able to outperform Governor Murphy in the key Republican stronghold counties of Monmouth and Ocean, the area of the Jersey Shore where Chris Christie had also outperformed John Corzine 12 years ago. Oddly enough, Monmouth County is where Governor Murphy lives.
While the race is still too close to call and will likely be headed for a recount, Republicans in New Jersey have a lot to be excited about – win or lose. Today feels a lot like post-Election Day 2009, which led to a big night in 2010 when Republicans reclaimed their majority in the U.S. House, picked up 6 seats in the U.S. Senate, and added 6 GOP governors to their ranks. We will learn a lot more about what happened in the New Jersey election in the days and weeks ahead. Coupled with Glenn Youngkin’s big victory in Virginia, it is clear the Democrats are in political trouble and have a lot to prove in one year’s time.