BGR Group Advisory Board Member Heather Nauert and Financial Services Vice President Keaghan Ames analyze how a second Trump administration could reshape economic and foreign policies, with an emphasis on energy independence and a more assertive international stance.
Category: Blog
What to Expect: Tax Reform
What will happen with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2025? BGR’s Financial Services and Tax team examines the timeline, biggest issues, and key players that will drive the debate.
Japan Tops 2024 BGR Impact Index, a Data-Based Ranking of Foreign Countries’ Influence in the U.S.
Japan is the top-ranked country in the 2024 BGR Impact Index, a ranking of the world’s countries based how well-known and well-regarded they are in the U.S. The BGR Impact Index is produced by BGR Analytics, part of the BGR Group, a top-performing lobbying and communications firm in Washington D.C., and is based on analysis of traditional, news and social media data.
BGR Deep Dive: Texas Remains a Domestic and International Economic Stalwart
BGR’s Texas Director, Jerry Strickland, dives into Texas’s economy that is remaining unphased by broader economic struggles in the country and looks ahead to the next legislative session. Read more about what is to come below.
DNC Download Day 1
The BGR team is on the ground in Chicago for the DNC!
BGR’s Kurt Volker On the Response by Foreign Leaders to the Assassination Attempt of Former President Trump
WATCH: BGR Group Advisory Board Member and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volker joined CNBC Squawk Box to discuss the response by foreign leaders to the assassination attempt of former President Trump, what it means for the 2024 election, and potential implications of a second Trump presidency.
BGR Welcomes Charles Dahan
BGR WELCOMES FINANCIAL SERVICES FELLOW CHARLES DAHAN
Charles Dahan has joined BGR Group as a Financial Services Fellow. In this role, he will be working with the Financial Services practice to provide background and expertise on a wide range of financial services issues. He brings with him an extensive background in financial services policy and education.
Charles previously worked at the Credit Union National Association where he managed all policy research as well as serving as a subject matter expert for topics including interchange legislation, veteran lending, access for credit unions to federal infrastructure funding deposits, and market intelligence on credit union growth and member services.
He also previously worked at Stanford University in the Department of Political Science, specifically as the program director for Naturalize New York, a multi-million-dollar grant project in coordination with the Robin Hood Foundation that measured factors driving likelihood of naturalization for eligible American residents as well as their economic performance.
While a Ph. D Candidate in political science at the University of Florida, Charles published peer-reviewed articles in top social science journals on topics ranging from American political behavior to public opinion measurement. He also taught courses in public opinion measurement, statistical research methods, the intersection of religion and politics in the United States, and the American political behavior at the University of Florida and University of North Carolina.
Charles has also created statistical models for the publication Baseball Prospectus that were used to evaluate college and minor-league baseball players. Additionally, he covered minor league teams throughout California for the publication.
As Goes Omaha, So Goes the White House?
As Goes Omaha, So Goes the White House?
By Ryan Long, BGR Group Principal
Former Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) once proposed moving the American capital to Nebraska. While that is not likely to happen anytime soon, Omaha may be the most consequential city in the 2024 election. Most people would shrug that off because it is not in one of the so-called swing states. However, the voters of Omaha may very well determine the next President.
A candidate must secure 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency. Using the Cook Political Report Presidential Ratings, President Biden currently projects to have 226 electoral votes from states ranked as likely or safe Democrat. Former President Trump currently has 219 electoral votes that are currently ranked safe or likely Republican. Add in North Carolina that is currently rated as lean Republican and the number for President Trump jumps up to 235.
That leaves six states currently rated as toss up, totaling 79 electoral votes. According to the Real Clear Politics polling average Trump has a lead of 4.6% or higher in three of them; Georgia with a total of 16 electoral votes, Arizona with 11 and Nevada with 6. If all of those are put in the Trump column, he is now up to 268 electoral votes. Close but still shy of the needed 270.
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are considered the Democrats’ historical blue wall. Despite quite a few close races before 2016, Wisconsin hadn’t voted for a Republican since 1984 while Michigan and Pennsylvania hadn’t voted for a Republican nominee since 1988. Trump beat Hilary Clinton in 2016 in all three states with margins under one percent. In 2020 those states swung back to the Democrats with Biden winning Michigan by less than three percent, Pennsylvania by less than two percent and Wisconsin by less than one percent.
On the Real Clear Politics average Trump is currently ahead in all three states but with thin margins of two percent or less in all three. A victory in any of three likely leads to a second Trump Administration. For the sake of argument only let’s say the historical blue wall holds and votes with President Biden. That would net him 270 electoral votes and the presidency…maybe.
Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the state-wide winner and one electoral vote for the winner of each congressional seat in the state. Cook Political Report currently rates Maine’s Second Congressional District as likely Republican. Given that Trump won the district in 2020 by almost 7.5%, he is the prohibitive favorite to win that district again in 2024.
This is where Omaha comes in. Popular former Air Force General, four term Republican Congressman Don Bacon won renomination easily on Tuesday but the district has voted for the Democrat nominee two times in the last four presidential elections. President Obama carried the district in 2008 but it reverted back to the GOP nominee Mitt Romney in 2012. In 2016 the district went for Trump but it switched to Biden in 2020. For this exercise let’s say Nebraska reverts back to Trump in 2024. Instead of a 270 to 268 Biden electoral college victory, there would be a 269-269 tie. In the event of a tie, the House of Representatives would determine the next President based on a vote of state congressional delegations. Currently, the GOP controls 27 delegations and the Democrats control 22 with Minnesota being tied. Any vote would be taken in the new Congress, which will be sworn in in January of 2025.
The nation’s eyes turn to Omaha every June for the College Baseball World Series. Come November, all eyes could be on Omaha again if the presidential vote falls a certain way
Why Are Americans Souring On Asian Investment?
Frank Ahrens, head of BGR Analytics, examines why Americans are souring on foreign investment.
Leading Government and Public Affairs Firms Join Together to Establish Advocus Partners
Bipartisan Team with a National Footprint Provides Comprehensive Advocacy Offering
WASHINGTON, D.C. (March 21, 2024) – Eight of the nation’s top government and public affairs companies have joined together to form Advocus Partners, a comprehensive advocacy company with a nationwide footprint. Advocus provides a full suite of advocacy disciplines from lobbying and strategic communications to polling and grassroots mobilization. Advocus is well-positioned to develop and execute large-scale public policy initiatives and advocacy campaigns at the federal, state, local, and international levels.
Advocus member companies include BGR Group, California-based Capitol Advocacy, Florida-based Capital City Consulting, The Herald Group, Ohio-based Hicks Partners, Hilltop Public Solutions, Stateside Associates, and The Tarrance Group. They operate independently and collaborate to serve clients.
Advocus was formed to bring together top lobbying and public affairs firms from across the country to provide comprehensive and customized solutions to clients’ advocacy needs. Organized as a holding company, Advocus Partners is bipartisan and geographically diverse and offers every tool of government advocacy.
“Advocus Partners represents the best of the best in consulting and advocacy from across the country,” Capitol Advocacy Managing Partner John Latimer said. “With 19 offices covering the most important markets in the country, the companies of Advocus are uniquely positioned to offer integrated and comprehensive advocacy solutions for our clients. Our collective history of successful advocacy efforts and campaign operations give clients the confidence that we can address any challenge they face.”
“Our firm is proud to be part of Advocus Partners,” BGR Group Chairman and CEO Bob Wood said. “Advocus’ bipartisan team excels at providing public affairs support, policy analysis, and strategies designed to achieve results. We’ve already seen how our Advocus team members and clients have benefited from this expanded collaboration and offering.”
“Advocus Partners is designed to provide clients with every component of advocacy campaigns regardless of scale or location,” said Craig Pattee, Managing Director of Advocus Partners. “We have the team, the tools, and the experience to execute both broad and targeted advocacy. Our partners are already working together to serve clients’ needs and achieve success.”
Advocus offerings include Corporate Advisory Services, Federal Government Services, State & Local Government Services, Strategic Communications, Coalition Development, Grasstops & Grassroots Mobilization, Polling & Research, Government Markets & Procurement, International Relations, Crisis & Litigation Support, Public Affairs Campaigns, and Digital Advocacy & Paid Media.
For more information on Advocus please visit advocuspartners.com.
CONTACT: Doug McGinn, The Herald Group (dmcginn@theheraldgroup.com)