Gubernatorial and Statewide Elections
After Tuesday’s election, Republicans will control the legislature and governorship of 23 states. With Democrats losing the Virginia governorship and House of Delegates, they will have full control of 14. Virginia: Glenn Youngkin (R) defeated Terry McAuliffe (D) in the gubernatorial election. Republicans also swept the other statewide races for Lieutenant Governor – Winsome Sears (R) defeated State Delegate Hala Ayala (D) – and Attorney General – Jason Miyares (R) defeated incumbent Mark Herring (D). This is the first time Republicans have won all three seats in 12 years. Republicans also flipped control of the House of Delegates picking up a net of 7 seats for 52-48 control.
- The Republican ticket is the most diverse in the history of the Commonwealth. Winsome Sears is the first female African American Lt. Governor and Jason Miyares is the first Latino Attorney General.
- Of the 16 governors’ elections in these two states since 1989, the incumbent president’s party has lost 15. The sole exception was Virginia’s 2013 governor’s election, which current Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe won during Barack Obama’s second term.
- Voter turnout was higher than expected, especially among Republicans, with ABC News estimating a vote total of 3.3 million. That far exceeds the 2.6 million votes cast in 2017 and the 2.2 million votes in 2013.
- Youngkin successfully localized the race and made education a key issue and major vulnerability for McAuliffe when he said in the final debate that, ”I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach” after working families were forced to juggle work and remote learning for over 18 months during the pandemic.
- According to Mark Rozell, the founding dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, Republicans appear to have found success with that messaging. “The entirety of the Democratic agenda may have been just a bit too much for the overall voting public in Virginia,” he said. Democrats’ losses Tuesday indicate that they may have “misread” the four years of anti-Trump resistance as enthusiasm for liberal policies, he added.
- Youngkin outperformed former President Donald Trump among key demographic (compared to 2020): +3 black voters, +9 women, +15 white women. +8 suburbans, +12 rural voters. Among Hispanics, Youngkin is projected to take ~55 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 38 percent in 2020 – a 17-point swing.
- With Republicans now back in control of the House of Delegates, the question remains who will become House Speaker. The current House Minority Leader is Todd Gilbert (R), who took over the Republican caucus after former Speaker Kirk Cox stepped down from leadership in 2019 when Democrats took the majority. There is speculation that long-time House Republican Terry Kilgore (R) could vie for the Speakership.
- New Jersey: Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy (D) narrowly defeated challenger Jack Ciattarelli (R) in a much more competitive race than forecasted. Murphy is the first Democrat to win a second term in the